Time Marches On--Relentlessly

In 2025, Arizona’s population will number almost 8 million. Almost 20 percent of those people will be over the age of 65 that year; and almost 365,000 residents will be 80 years old or older.

Rob Melnick is the director of the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at Arizona State University. He says that despite the future’s uncertainty, there are many clues that have been revealed through the facts and trends examined by researchers working on “The Coming of Age” project.

Melnick’s companion report is called “Four Scenarios of Arizona’s Future.” The report provides a glimpse into some expectations for elders and future elders alike. Set in 2025, the scenarios examine how Arizona politics and the state budget may affect baby boomers; technology’s enhancement of health care and life; affordability of health care and the cost of living; and Arizona’s economy and health care resources.

“This is a very dynamic issue,” Melnick says. “There are many factors that will interact and affect the future of Arizona and health care. The purpose of these scenarios is to get people to think—‘This is how Arizona’s future could play out. If you don’t like it, then change it.’”

Arizona’s demographic mix will play out in politics and matters involving health care. In 2000, 76 percent of those 65 and older reported they were registered to vote. A total of 68 percent of those people said they voted. Melnick’s first scenario illustrates how the strength of the elder vote will continue in 2025, when a Hispanic woman becomes the governor-elect. Under her leadership, Arizona’s entry-level workers, young parents, and professionals will want more funding for education, economic development, and recreation. But the governor’s expansive health care program for the elderly will need to be funded, in part, by substantial cuts in education and health care for the young.

“I believe we will have had or will have a Hispanic governor by 2025,” Melnick says. “It is also a subtle way of getting readers to realize that Arizona will have a very large number of Hispanic voters by the year 2025, and that they will be politically active. The state will also have elderly who will continually and loudly voice their opinion, especially on matters involving health care.”

Melnick says technology will provide many advances in medicine and telecommunications, which will create great prospects for the aging. In 2025, Arizona’s elders will use telecom tools to care for themselves in their homes. Computers will remind them to take or change medications according to continuous readings.

“The people who are baby boomers today are, for the most part, very confident users of technology as consumers and seekers of information,” Melnick says. “As they age, these future elderly are going to use technology to become particularly savvy about health care issues.”

Melnick examined the complex topics of aging, health care, public finance, politics, and Arizona’s future. He focused on state trends that were emphasized by the team of researchers involved with “The Coming of Age” project. He also used national data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. Census, and other federal resources.

One trend that will likely continue is the convergence of negative economic factors. Health care costs for elders may be driven up and beyond what most Arizonans can afford. Melnick says health care will also become an intergenerational political issue.

“There is going to be a conflict between generations. The cost of medications and health care for the elderly will likely compete with what younger generations want.”

“Nothing is black and white,” he adds. “Changes in technology, the economy, and the political arena could go in many directions. No one has a crystal ball. However, by examining certain trends, we can project our possible futures. By learning about them now, we can better influence how things actually turn out.”—Manny Romero