by Jessica McCann
Understanding the economy requires a sense of what Dawn McLaren calls connectivity—the way in which many factors come together to create a sort of force that affects us all.
“There’s a market force that occurs, which is almost beyond us,” says McLaren, a research economist with the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business. “It’s there, and we are all subject to it. We react to it every day, make decisions because of it, whether we want to or not, whether we realize it or not.”
McLaren’s job is to help people better understand that market force and respond to it in a purposeful way. The ASU researcher generates economic analyses, forecasts, and indices which translate raw data into something more comprehensible. The Arizona Tourism Barometer is a prime example.
Following the terrorist attacks of September 11th, there was some confusion about how Arizona’s tourism industry had been and would be impacted. Many people didn’t recognize (or perhaps even realize) that the state already had been headed into recession. They saw tourism numbers dropping dramatically, but they couldn’t necessarily see the big picture.
“You can look at year-over-year figures, you can look at visitation rates, and perhaps you can identify individual trends,” McLaren explains. “But looking at these aspects alone can be confusing, because you may not see how those trends affect the industry as a whole.”
McLaren developed The Arizona Tourism Barometer. It consists of four indicators that capture different aspects of tourism activity. Each indicator is equally weighted, seasonally adjusted and standardized. The barometer begins in April 1990 and is reported on a monthly basis, tracking the ups and downs in the industry.
“This allows you to see a trend in the industry as a whole and properly forecast what action you should take in response,” she says.
Dawn McLaren provides economic analysis of issues facing the western United States and Mexico. Contact her at 480.965.7265. Send e-mail to Dawn.McLaren@asu.edu